Ok sure, we still have a long ways to go – and most races still have long, bitter primary battles to settle first. But let’s take a look at the most vulnerable seats up for grabs in 2010 and how I think it’ll all pan out:
Colorado
In early 2009, Senator Ken Salazar was nominated and confirmed for U.S. Secretary of Interior and Governor Bill Ritter appointed Denver schools’ superintendent and Democratic legacy Michael Bennet to fill his spot.
Colorado House Speaker Andrew Romanoff was on the short list of possible appointees, but lost out and will challenge Bennet in the Democratic Primary, meaning no easy run for Bennet.
Former Colorado Lt. Governor Jane Norton
Jane Norton, former Lt. Governor, appears to be the leading candidate for the GOP nomination. Rasmussen polling from December 11 shows her leading Bennet 46%-37% and Romanoff 45%-34%.
Although Norton is unknown to many voters, her strong lead in the poll this early against both an incumbent Senator and the Speaker of the State House of Representatives means Colorado voters want a change. In fact, Independent voters choose Norton over both Democrats by a more than 2 to 1 margin.
I’m calling this one for the GOP.
Connecticut
Scandal-ridden Senator Chris Dodd
The infamous Chris Dodd will be gone from our lives come November 2010. Although I strongly support Peter Schiff for the GOP nomination, Dodd is losing against all three potential GOP contenders – particularly Rob Simmons, who is up by 13 points as of the latest Rasmussen polling on 12/07. Dodd picks up only 35%-40% of the vote against any one of them.
That makes two.
Delaware
Joe Biden’s seat became available last January when, well, you know the story. Delaware Governor Ruth Ann Minner appointed Biden’s Chief of Staff, Ted Kaufman, to the job. Kaufman has since said he will not run in 2010, leaving the seat open for Biden’s son Beau to grab the Democratic nomination and presumably follow in his father’s footsteps in the Senate.
Perennial Delaware Politician Mike Castle
But wait, not so fast. Mike Castle, perennial Delaware politician has consistently been ahead of Biden in almost all polling. Castle started in the State Assembly back in 1967. He moved up to State Senate in 1969, Lt. Governor in 1981, Governor in 1985, and Congress in 1993 – where he’s been ever since. To say he’s well known in the state would be an understatement.
I’m calling it in. That’s three.
Nevada
Another Democrat big shot is in the crosshairs. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid hasn’t exactly won alot of friends in his short stint as majority leader. Congressional approval is at an all-time low thanks to Dirty Harry and Negative Nancy.
Nevada State GOP Chairwoman and Former State Senator Sue Lowden
Reid gets just 43% against all three of his potential GOP challengers Sue Lowden, Danny Tarkanian or Sharron Angle. Lowden, the Nevada state Republican Chairwoman and a former Nevada state senator – and Tarkanian, son of legendary basketball coach Jerry Tarkanian, seem to be the frontrunners and both get 49% to Harry’s 43% in the Rasmussen polls from 12/9.
With the significantly trending disgust for big government, and particularly Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi, I’m calling this one for the GOP as well.
That makes four.
North Dakota
Popular North Dakota Governor John Hoeven
This one all depends on whether popular Governor John Hoeven decides to run or not. He’s been in office there since 2000 – America’s longest serving Governor – so maybe he will decide it’s time for a change. Adding to that is the fact that he outpolls incumbent Senator Byron Dorgan by 22 points, 58%-36%. That is not a small margin to say the least.
One downside is that many conservatives blast him as a big-government Republican, which is not exactly what we need right now, but if he decides to run, you can count on another seat for the GOP.
That’s five.
Now let’s take a look at some of the seats that could be a steal for Republicans, but certainly shouldn’t be counted on. With a strong midterm turnout and a good candidate, however, these could easily swing the GOP’s way.
Arkansas
Senator Blanche Lincoln is definately no slouch. At the age of 31 she took out her former boss, Congressman Bill Alexander, in the Democratic primary and handily won in the General with 70% of the vote. Then at 38, she became the youngest woman ever elected to the U.S. Senate. She is finishing her second term in the Senate and is not to be taken lightly.
However, due to her visible and pivotal role in the Senate debate over health care, she has taken quite a hit and finds herself trailing all four potential GOP challengers. Her support ranges from only 39%-41% in these matchups.
Her toughest competition is likely to come from a State Senator as Gilbert Baker and Minority Leader Kim Hendren seem to be leading the pack. They lead her by 6 and 7 points respectively.
I’m almost compelled to count this one in the bag, but Lincoln is a formidable opponent, and neither of the GOP frontrunners are heavyweights by any means.
Illinois
Two names to start this one off with: Rod Blagojevich & Roland Burris. Burris was appointed by the embarrassed former Governor amidst a slew of controversy and scandal. Burris said under oath that “prior to the December 26, 2008, telephone call from Mr. Adams Jr., there was not any contact between [himself] or any of [his] representatives with Governor Blagojevich or any of his representatives regarding [his] appointment to the United States Senate.”
However, according to the FBI wiretap transcript recorded Nov. 13, Burris told Rob Blagojevich, who was the chairman of the ex-governor’s reelection campaign, that he understood that Blagojevich wanted money and that he was “trying to figure out how to deal with this and still be in the consideration for the appointment”, and that he was willing to “personally do something.”
Regardless, he was appointed and confirmed even after the Secretary of State didn’t sign off on the papers and despite numerous calls to resign. He did, however, say he would not run for the seat in 2010, so that takes us to today.
Nearly a dozen people have filed for the February primary, but Illinois Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias looks like the frontrunner for the Democrats, and Congressman Mark Kirk the frontrunner for the GOP. Giannoulias had a 3 point advantage 42%-39% in the latest Rasmussen poll on 12/11, and in a heavily Democratic state would be a tough fight for Kirk.
However, in a strong election year for Republicans, and the past scandal involving the seats’ appointment, Kirk definately has a shot.
New York (Junior)
*Sigh* Just last week Rudy Giuliani officially took his name out of the hat for Hillary Clinton’s old seat. He had a fairly sizable lead over appointed incumbent Kristen Gillibrand, but chose not to run.
However, former Governor George Pataki has been mentioned as a possible challenger, and has strong name I.D. throughout the state. Despite the fact that he said he isn’t interested, initial polling has him almost even with Gillibrand. Again, in a good year, he could definately take the seat if he runs a strong campaign.
Pennsylvania
Oh, Arlen, how worthless you’ve become. The once-GOP Senator is now getting a (albeit weak) challenge from Congressman Joe Sestak for the Democratic nomination and is actually deadlocked with Republican Congressman Pat Toomey in the latest Quinnipiac poll from 12/18 at 44%-44%.
I think voters have grown tired of politics as usual and will oust the old man Specter, but I certainly wouldn’t count this one as a certainty.
So there it is – I’m calling at least 5 pickups in the Senate for the GOP, and as many as 9. Several will decide on whether certain challengers jump in the race or not, but if all goes well, I think 6-8 is very likely.
2010 will be a good year.
Allan…
RT @DrunkonPolitics: "Daily Drink-6/15/2010" - http://bit.ly/9yHwJF #tcot #sgp #gop #teaparty
RT @DrunkonPolitics: "Daily Drink-6/15/2010" - http://bit.ly/9yHwJF #tcot #sgp #gop #teaparty
RT @DrunkonPolitics: "Daily Drink-6/15/2010" - http://bit.ly/9yHwJF #tcot #sgp #gop #teaparty
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