Tuesday marks an odd-year special election that most Americans probably don’t even know about. In most areas the elections are scant; maybe a school board to vote on and not much else. But in some areas of the country we will be able to see the first electoral reactions to the Obama Presidency. And these are no school boards; we have two Governorships, two Congressional seats, a handful of measures and some large Mayoral vacancies. Let’s take a look at the main ones:
Gubernatorial:
Chris Christie and Jon Corzine
New Jersey – “It’s the economy stupid.” The battered State of New Jersey has the highest taxes in the nation, and the citizens know it. Governor Jon Corzine, the billionaire former Wall-Street executive is throwing many millions more to maintain his seat. He has already spent a combined $100 million on his past Senate and Gubernatorial races and has so far spent three times as much as Republican Challenger Chris Christie. However, the latest Quinnipiac poll shows Christie two points ahead of Corzine 42-40 despite Obama flying in directly for rallies in Camden and Newark in an 11th hour attempt to hold on to the hurting state. The outcome of this race will probably be the most telling of Obama’s support – or lack thereof – after just nine months in office. The heavily Democratic State of New Jersey has a 700,000 Democratic registration gap, so to lose here despite spending three times as much as the Republican challenger would be proof of a coming conservative movement.
Virginia – In a State where for the first time in 44 years voted Democratic in the Presidential Election, the GOP is trying to make a comeback. Democratic Governor Tim Kaine is termed out and it is a rematch of the Attorney General race of four years ago. The winner of that battle – Attorney General Bob McDonnell takes on his former foe, State Senator Creigh Deeds. McDonnell led by double digits in the last six major polls, so a victory there will be no surprise, but will still be a swing from Democrat to Republican and another win for the GOP.
Congressional:
Hoffman Owens Scozzafava
New York’s 23rd- I wrote a piece the other day about the ongoings of this very unique race here, but I’ll catch you up to speed – alot has happened since then. The 23rd is one of the few strong Republican districts in New York, and was vacated after Republican John McHugh accepted an appointment as Secretary of the Army from President Obama. The battle seemed to initially appear between a Pelosi Democrat in Bill Owens and a very left-leaning Republican Dede Scozzafava. Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman began his campaign with a whisper. That whisper grew dramatically, however, as former Vice President Candidate Sarah Palin came in with her endorsement. Rush Limbaugh, Sean Hannity, Hugh Hewitt and a plethora of other conservative voices soon followed. Scozzafava’s fundraising dried up, she quickly dropped out of the race and then even endorsed Democrat Bill Owens. Hoffman now leads in polling despite her endorsement. A win here for a non-GOP conservative would only further embolden the conservative movement we are seeing as a backlash to Obama’s extraordinary government growth.
John Garamendi and David Harmer
California’s 10th – Back in May, Congresswoman Ellen Tauscher was was nominated by President Obama for Undersecretary of State for Arms Control and International Security. She was confirmed in June and the Special Election was set. The District hold an 18-point voter registration lead for Democrats and a we-known stateide Democratic candidate in Liutenant Governor John Garamendi. Yet businessman and relatively unknown Republican David Harmer has more than a fighting chance, according to Jim Geraghty of the National Review. With the low turnout of a special election, an unmotivated left, and an old-guard candidate; Harmer just might pull out an upset. Odds are against it, but if he does, it is surely a sign of true voter revolt against government.
So there it is – the most important election most Americans probably don’t even know about; The Littlest Big Election.
Allan…
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